A weak monsoon in August added to concerns that low rainfall could push up inflation during the festive season.

Monsoon Update News: Inflation is on the rise due to increase in the prices of vegetables and fruits due to heavy rains in many states of the country. Therefore, due to less than normal rains in the month of August, the possibility of further increase in inflation is increasing. In the first 15 days of August, there has been 5% less rain than normal. In 717 districts of the country, 36 percent, i.e. 263 districts have received less than 20 percent rainfall.

In the first 15 days of August, the effect of weak monsoon is being seen across the country. While in July, there was 13% more rain than usual. However, the Meteorological Department is hopeful that the monsoon may resume after July 18. The least rainfall has been observed in the eastern Indian states of Bihar, Jharkhand and eastern Uttar Pradesh.

A weak monsoon is adding to inflationary concerns. Production of kharif crops, particularly rice, pulses and oilseeds, is expected to be affected. Similarly, the price of rice has also increased in recent times. And with a weak monsoon affecting rice production, prices may see a further rise. Soybean production may be the most affected because it requires the most water to grow. Sowing of pulses is done after the arrival of monsoon when there is more water in the field.

Several research reports have said that the effect of El Nino may lead to a drought-like situation this year, which may reduce the production of food grains. After a weak monsoon, the fear of El Nino seems to be coming true. In such a situation, the risk of inflation is increasing in the coming days. In the retail inflation data announced for the month of July, while the CBI inflation stood at 7.44 percent, the food inflation rate reached double digits at 11.51 percent.

If the monsoon weakens in the month of August, then inflation in the coming festive season may further worry people. Because during this time, the demand for food items also increases.

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