India TV-CNX Poll: BJP likely to return to power in Rajasthan

India TV-CNX Poll- India TV Hindi

Image source: India TV
India TV-CNX poll

New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party could return to power with a clear majority after winning 115 seats in the Rajasthan assembly elections this month. This assessment was made in the second survey of India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. The poll results were aired on news channels today.

According to opinion polls, the main opposition party BJP can win 115 seats in the 200-seat assembly. While the seats of the ruling Congress may be reduced to 80. In the assembly elections held five years ago, BJP got 73 seats and Congress got 100 seats. This time independent and smaller parties could get only 5 seats, while in 2018 they won 27 seats.

According to the vote share estimates in the polls, BJP may get 45 percent, Congress 42 percent and others 13 percent. In the 2018 elections, BJP got 38.77% votes, Congress got 39.3% votes and others got 21.93% votes.

Region wise estimation of seats

The estimated region wise seats in India TV-CNX poll are as follows –

  1. Out of the 48 seats in Jaipur-Dholpur, BJP can get 26 seats, while Congress can get 20 seats and others two seats.
  2. Out of 24 Tonk Kota seats, BJP can get 13 seats and Congress can get remaining 11 seats.
  3. Out of 56 seats in Marwar, BJP can get 34 seats, while Congress can get 20 seats and others can get two seats.
  4. Out of the 48 seats in Mewar, the BJP may get 31 seats, while the Congress may get 16 seats and the others may get one seat each.
  5. Out of 24 seats in Shekhawati, BJP can get 11 seats and Congress 13 seats.

Who is ahead in the race of Chief Minister?

In an opinion poll, 34 percent of voters preferred Ashok Gehlot for the post of chief minister, and 29 percent preferred Vasundhara Raje. Sachin Pilot got 10 percent of the votes, while Gajender Singh Shekhawat got 8 percent, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore got 7 percent and Daya Kumari got 5 percent.

Some special poll results

  • 52 percent of voters said that the BJP high command’s decision not to make Vasundhara Raje the chief ministerial face was right, but 45 percent said it was wrong.
  • Sixty-one percent of voters rated the law and order situation in Rajasthan as bad, but 34 percent said it was good.
  • 49 percent of voters said the Congress’ promise of a caste-based census was a campaign promise, while 41 percent said it was true.
  • 71 percent of OBC voters said that there should be a caste-wise census in the state, but 20.52 percent of OBC voters were not in favor of it. This question was asked only to OBC voters.
  • When asked about the main issues of the election, 21.05 percent said unemployment was the main issue while 18.51 percent said inflation was the main issue. 18.42 percent said law and order as the most important issue while 16.51 percent said development as the most important issue. 9.45 percent said that corruption is the main problem.
  • 50.18 percent of the voters gave the Ashok Gehlot government 0-4 marks on a scale of 1 to 10, 38.9 percent gave 8-10 marks and 10.92 percent gave 5-7 marks.
  • 42.18 percent said they were dissatisfied with the work of their local MLA, while 25.53 percent said they were somewhat satisfied with the work of their local MLA. 20.18 percent said that they are fully satisfied with the MLA’s work.
  • When asked which party’s government did better in the state, 47 per cent said – the previous BJP government and 40.12 per cent said – the current Congress government.
  • When asked which party’s guarantees (welfare schemes) are better, 52.18 percent said – BJP, and 40.27 percent said – Congress.
  • 55.98 percent of voters said they were unhappy with the state government’s performance during the Covid outbreak, while 32.39 percent said they were satisfied.
  • 57.15 percent people said that the conflict between Gehlot and Pilot will cost the Congress in the elections, while 36.64 percent said – no.

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